巴克莱：供应缩减支撑铜价 预计今年中国铜需求增30万吨

（原标题：巴克莱：供应缩减支撑铜价 预计今年中国铜需求增30万吨）

SMM5月11日讯：巴克莱分析师Dane Davis周三表示，即使中国市场的需求放缓，但矿井生产中断及废铜供应缩减，将支撑铜价。

因2015-16年度中国“微刺激”的提振效应减退，今年中国需求增长明显放缓，但供应下滑或可抵消这一消极影响。据44%的投行年度产量估值，今年的铜产量下滑量或达46.4万吨。

中国的废铜价格上涨趋势表明，随着LME期货价格的暴跌，市场供应会相应收紧。

预计随着进一步的供应中断，季度性的价格下滑或难以持续，市场或出现买入时机。

预计中国今年铜需求增长30万吨，巴克莱仍维持对2017年铜均价2.55美元/磅（即$5,620/吨）的价格预测。

（上海有色网许慧梅翻译）

原文如下：

CoPPer Will Find Price Floor on OutaGEs, Tighter Scrap: BArclays

Mine DISruptions and fADIng scrap supply to support prices even if demand in China deteriorates, analy st Dane Davis said in note Wednesday

* Production losses this year total 464kt, or 44% of the bank’s annual disruption estiMATe

* Rising scrap prices in China suggest supply is starting to drop following slump in LME futures

* With further disruptions likely, selLOFfs will not be sustainable on a quarterly basis, and should be viewed as buying opportunity

* Supply issues should offset slowing Chinese demand growth as boost from 2015/16 “mini-stiMUlus” wears off

* Chinese demand to grow by 300kt this year

* Barclays maintains 2017 price foreCAst at $2.55/lb

（$5,620/ton）

* LME copper $5,490/ton on Wednesday

By Mark Burton